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The Method N° 01 · How muscle grows

Progressive overload

Muscle adapts to what you ask of it. Keep asking for a little more.

Every study checked against the paper, . Each section carries its grade. Run the numbers in the app.

Adaptation needs a reason

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Lifting is a stress, and muscle and nerve adapt so the same stress costs less next time. Early on almost any training works: the American College of Sports Medicine's 2026 position says progression is not even necessary for the first benefits. It is likely necessary for anyone who wants progress to continue.1

Progressing doubled the payoff

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In a 2026 trial, raising the load whenever the top of the rep range was reached grew the triceps about twice as much as never progressing: 22.9% against 11.6%.2 Untrained women and one exercise, but the gap is large.

More weight or more reps: both count

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Adding a rep at the same weight works about as well as adding weight at the same reps. In trained lifters over eight weeks, muscle differences were under a millimetre;3 in untrained legs over ten weeks, growth was all but identical.4 Some people may respond better to one than the other, but nobody can yet tell you which in advance.5

Weights chosen by feel work

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Choosing the weight by how many reps you have left, instead of a fixed percentage of a tested max, builds strength at least as well. A meta-analysis found a small edge for choosing by feel that did not reach significance,6 and in trained men, squat gains were 17.1 kg by feel against 13.9 kg by percentage, again not a significant difference.7

Reps in reserve is a real scale

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Reps in reserve is how many more you could have done. Rated that way, effort tracked bar speed closely, in experienced lifters and in novices.8 A chart built on it turns reps plus reps in reserve into a share of your max, with the authors' warning that people differ.9

Your max is an estimate, and that is fine

Settled

Formulas that turn a set into a one-rep max are accurate with low reps and loosen as reps rise. Predictions from five reps were the best; at ten and twenty they weakened.10 Across 269 studies, people at the same share of their max did very different numbers of reps, and more on the leg press.11 Even the tested equations tracked real maxes closely while missing them on average.12 A working estimate from your last sets beats a guess, and beats testing your max every week.

How the Vanguard app runs this

Every set you log sets the next one. In a rep range, the app keeps the weight and asks for a rep more until you own the top of the range on every set, then adds weight. Without a recent session it works from your estimated max, from sets of 12 reps plus reserve or fewer, never more than 10% over your last top set.

The research

The research

The 12 sources this chapter stands on, with what each one actually found.

  1. Currier, D'Souza, Singh et al., 2026 · Med Sci Sports Exerc

    Position stand · 137 systematic reviews · over 30,000 people

    The American College of Sports Medicine recommends progressive training, and says progression is not necessary for the first benefits but is likely a requirement for continued longer-term progress.

    Read the paper by Currier, D'Souza, Singh et al., 2026 (opens in a new tab)
  2. Kassiano, Santos-Melo, Manske et al., 2026 · Med Sci Sports Exerc

    Randomised trial, one arm each · 55 untrained women · 8 weeks

    Triceps thickness rose 22.9% with load progression, 11.6% without, and 1.8% in the untrained arm.

    Read the paper by Kassiano, Santos-Melo, Manske et al., 2026 (opens in a new tab)
  3. Plotkin, Coleman, Van Every et al., 2022 · PeerJ

    Randomised trial · n = 43 trained · 8 weeks

    Adding reps or adding load: muscle thickness differences under 1 mm. The squat max leaned slightly toward load (+2.0 kg), with an interval crossing zero.

    Read the paper by Plotkin, Coleman, Van Every et al., 2022 (opens in a new tab)
  4. Chaves, Scarpelli, Bergamasco et al., 2024 · Int J Sports Med

    One leg each · n = 39 untrained · 10 weeks

    Thigh cross-section grew from 21.34 to 23.53 cm² with load progression and from 21.08 to 23.39 cm² with rep progression; leg-extension max gains were similar.

    Read the paper by Chaves, Scarpelli, Bergamasco et al., 2024 (opens in a new tab)
  5. Scarpelli, Bergamasco, Godwin et al., 2025 · Eur J Appl Physiol

    One leg each · n = 37 untrained · 10 weeks

    About a third grew more with rep progression, about a fifth with load progression and about a third showed no difference. The groups were drawn after the fact.

    Read the paper by Scarpelli, Bergamasco, Godwin et al., 2025 (opens in a new tab)
  6. Hickmott, Chilibeck, Shaw et al., 2022 · Sports Med Open

    Meta-analysis · 15 studies

    Loads set by feel beat fixed percentages by 2.07 kg on the max, an interval of −0.32 to 4.46: a small edge, not significant.

    Read the paper by Hickmott, Chilibeck, Shaw et al., 2022 (opens in a new tab)
  7. Helms, Byrnes, Cooke et al., 2018 · Front Physiol

    Randomised trial · n = 21 trained men · 8 weeks

    Squat gains of 17.05 kg by feel against 13.91 kg by percentage, not a significant difference; muscle growth was similar.

    Read the paper by Helms, Byrnes, Cooke et al., 2018 (opens in a new tab)
  8. Zourdos, Klemp, Dolan et al., 2016 · J Strength Cond Res

    Validation study · n = 29 squatters

    Effort rated by reps in reserve tracked bar speed: r = −0.88 in experienced lifters and −0.77 in novices. A 10 is no reps left, a 9 is one.

    Read the paper by Zourdos, Klemp, Dolan et al., 2016 (opens in a new tab)
  9. Helms, Cronin, Storey et al., 2016 · Strength Cond J

    Applied review

    A chart that turns reps plus reps in reserve into a share of the max, built on squatters' averages; the authors note that individuals differ.

    Read the paper by Helms, Cronin, Storey et al., 2016 (opens in a new tab)
  10. Reynolds, Gordon, Robergs, 2006 · J Strength Cond Res

    Prediction study · n = 70 aged 18 to 69

    Predictions from a 5-rep max were the best (R² 0.993 bench, 0.974 leg press) and weakened at 10 and 20 reps; the authors advise 10 reps or fewer.

    Read the paper by Reynolds, Gordon, Robergs, 2006 (opens in a new tab)
  11. Nuzzo, Pinto, Nosaka et al., 2024 · Sports Med

    Meta-regression · 269 studies · 7,289 people

    About 5 reps at 90% of a max and 15 at 70% on average, with a spread between people of 2.5 to 4.4 reps; more on the leg press.

    Read the paper by Nuzzo, Pinto, Nosaka et al., 2024 (opens in a new tab)
  12. LeSuer, McCormick, Mayhew et al., 1997 · J Strength Cond Res

    Validation study · n = 67 untrained · seven equations

    Predicted and tested maxes correlated above 0.95, yet most equations were off on average for bench and squat, and every one underestimated the deadlift.

    Read the paper by LeSuer, McCormick, Mayhew et al., 1997 (opens in a new tab)

Research describes groups of people. Your coach will tell you how it applies to you.